Nathan Oakley Housekeeping Debunked

Nathan Oakley is one if the more annoying Flat Earth folks out there. He’s known to allow anyone in his live show, then cut them off when he starts losing or getting cornered.

He posted a video with a list of his so-called “unanswered questions”. I responded. I’ll post the questions and answers here in case they suddenly go missing from the YouTube comment section.

1. Any evidence of the distance to the sun?

Yes, using a simple parallax measurement from two points on the earth, you get the distance to the moon. Then just do a simple trig measurement when the moon is at its half phase. You then get the sun is about 400X times farther than the moon.

Really simple.

2. The Refraction value. Any evidence?

Yes. Atmospheric refractive is easily measured and seen quite well. As everybody knows that the sun moves 15 deg/hr. Just measure the track of the sun and you will see the sun stay at a constant angular velocity just until it sets. Once it gets close to the horizon, you will see it slow down to where you are still able to see the sun even though it physically below the horizon.

When measuring this, you can then verify the formula R=57/tan(altitude of the object). As the sun is setting below the horizon, the sun is refracted almost 0.5 degrees.

Really simple.

3. Any sign of earth’s curvature?

Yes. The confusion most flat earth folks have is how it’s visible. The common complaint is that they can’t see a curve looking out over the ocean. They just see a flat horizon. That’s because you are looking at the X-axis from left & right. You are seeing too little of a 360 circle to see a curve. You are seeing less than 0.2 degrees at sea level. At 60,000 ft, it’s barely visible and at 110,000 it’s pretty prominent.

But, the Y-axis, you easily see it as you keep a video zoomed in on any ship or airliner as it moves away from you until it’s out of view. To test, wait until it’s completely out of view, then try to zoom it back into view. If you can’t, it’s because of the earth’s curve.

Bonus content. If you see a clear horizon, that’s because you are seeing the edge of the curve. At flat earth would not have a horizon and all objects would disappear gradually until there is too much atmosphere to see it clearly.

Really simple.

4. Any evidence of a molten iron core?

East, just measure the seismic waves from across the globe. As we see the waves pass through different properties, we can measure which elements are where.

Waves passing directly through the earth are times and measured by intensity and we can see that the core is both molten and made mostly from iron.

Simple logic as objects get hotter as they go deeper into the earth.

Really simple.

5. Any signs of axial rotation?

Yes, the very fact that the stars rotate 15 deg/hr counterclockwise around Polaris at the same time the stars rotate around Sigma Octanis at 15 deg/hr clockwise.

Also, we see the rotation causes hurricanes to rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

Really simple.

6. Have pressure without a container?

Yes. When Hurricane Harvey was hitting Houston, the core was at a pressure of 27.67 in. 200 miles north in Ft Worth, the pressure was over 30 in. There was no container keeping the high pressure from getting to the low pressure.

Also, on a typical day, the pressure at sea level is just below 30 in. At 5,000 ft, it’s just under 25 inches. What container is holding that high pressure from reaching the lower pressure? None.

At 10,000 ft, the pressure is about 20.5 inches. Still no container.

At 40,000 ft, the pressure is 5.5 inches. Obviously airliners are required to be pressurized otherwise the passengers would die. But outside, no container keeping the high pressure at sea level reaching 40,000 ft.

At 65,000 ft, it’s only about 1.66 inches. At 100,000 ft, it’s 0.32 inches. If you require a container to hold gas pressure, where exactly is it? We went from 30 inches to 0.32 without any noticeable container.

Really simple.

7. Any scientific evidence of gravity?

Yes, Henry Cavendish was able to measure the force of gravity between two objects in the late 1790’s.

The value he discovered as the gravitational constant has been confirmed ever since as every object (regardless of density) falls to the earth at that value.

Really simple.

8. “R”-Value. Any Evidence?

Actually, Pythagoras was able to calculate the existence of a globe. Eratosthenes did it a few 100 years later. Al-Biruni did it again using a different method 1,000 years ago. So, after 2.5 millenia, the globe is still a globe.

Now, the question is how do we calculate the radius (R) of our globe if we don’t have a measuring tape 1,000’s of miles long?

Let’s look at bridges. Very long bridges. Bridges that require the towers to be perfectly vertical because they are holding up many 1.000’s of tons of steel and cables. These towers are built so far apart, that they literally have to be farther apart at the tops than the base at sea level due to the curve of the earth.

The formula we will use us very simple, repeatable, and verifiable. R = h(height in feet) * d(distance apart in feet) / s(Tower separation in inches)*12. R = h * d / (s/12).

Let’s try a few and see how we do. According to NYMTA, https://new.mta.info/bridges-and-tunnels/about/verrazzano-narrows-bridge the Verrazano-Narrows bridge the towers 693 feet in height, 4,260 feet apart, and dude to the curve of the earth, the tops are 1.69 inches further than the bases.

R = 4,260*693/(1.69/12)

R = 2,952,180/0.1408

R = 20,967,187.5 feet

Actual radius of the earth is about 20,925,197 feet that gives us a variance of 1.002 or 1/5 of 1%. Nice

But, let’s validate this with other bridges in the world:

Name	Tower Sep(in.)	Tower Hgt (Ft)	Tower Dist (Ft)	R Calc (Ft)	Variance	Var%
Varrazano-Narrows Bridge	1.69	693	4,260	20,962,225	1.002	0.18%
Humber Bridge	2.15	692	5,414	20,910,631	0.999	-0.07%
Akashi Kaikyo Bridge	3.47	928	6,529	20,953,010	1.001	0.13%
Xihoumen Bridge	2.15	692	5,414	20,910,631	0.999	-0.07%
Great Belt Bridge	2.55	833	5,328	20,885,760	0.998	-0.19%
Runyang Bridge	1.98	705	4,888	20,885,091	0.998	-0.19%
Jiangyin Suspension Bridge	1.62	623	4,543	20,965,104	1.002	0.19%
Tsing Ma Bridge	1.75	676	4,518	20,942,866	1.001	0.08%
Golden Gate Bridge	1.80	746	4,200	20,888,000	0.998	-0.18%
High Coast Bridge	1.35	591	3,970	20,855,733	0.997	-0.33%

Looks like the variance is a pretty good mark and well within tolerances for this experiment. I’ll have to guess why Nathan will be forced to ignore this and all the other points as they will dig into his story a bit.

9. Alternate “R”-Value Calculation

In the 11th century, Al-Biruni successfully determined the radius of the Earth. He accomplished that by measuring the dip of the horizon from the top of a hill. From the measurements, he was able to calculate the radius of the Earth.

In the 21st century, we can easily repeat the same experiment with practically no effort. We just need a smartphone and an opportunity to observe the horizon from a high altitude, like during a flight.

Al-Biruni carried out his measurement in two steps.

First, he measured the height of a mountain. He took two measurements of the angle to the top of the mountain from two different locations. From the results, he was able to determine the height of the hill.

Second, he climbed to the top of the mountain and measured the dip of the horizon. From his measurements, he was able to calculate the radius of the Earth.

Using modern technology, we can carry out the same measurement and determine the radius of the Earth by ourselves. These days, practically all smartphones are equipped with GPS that can measure our altitude, and we can skip Al-Biruni’s first step. And with the accelerometer sensors inside our phones, we can measure the dip of the horizon. Using a smartphone that we already carry everywhere, we can carry out Al-Biruni’s measurement. We only need to be in a high enough location and a clear view of the horizon, like during a flight.

Calculation

Calculation using the numbers in the illustration: 38805 ft * cos(3.4 degrees) / (1- cos(3.4 degrees)) in km = 6707.8 km

The result is different only about 5% from the actual value.

Derivation of the Equation

References

• Al-Biruni’s Classic Experiment: How to Calculate the Radius of the Earth – Owlcation
• The Empire of Reason 3/6 (Science and Islam – Episode 2 of 3) – Jim Al-Khalili – BBC
• https://flatearth.ws/al-biruni-method#:~:text=Al-Biruni%E2%80%99s%20Method%20to%20Determine%20the%20Radius%20of%20the,%3D%206707.8%20km%203%20Derivation%20of%20the%20Equation

12 Key Points that Prove a Globe Earth

I have been debunking a grand list of conspiracies over the years, but one that still lingers lately is the idea that 7.4B people live on a flat and still earth with the sun, moon, and planets all circling above us on some sort of dome. Anybody that has passed 9th grade science knows this is impossible, but it seems not everybody was awake as they took that class.

12 Points

I have developed 12 points that independently and solely end the Flat Earth story. Just to clarify, its just a story as it has not come close to being a theory. So, in no particular order:

1. Sunsets — According to a few common versions of Flat Earth, they make the claim that the sun is between 3,000-5,000 miles up. This would mean that sunsets are impossible. Explain how we see a sunset.
2. Phases of the moon — Explain how this is possible on a flat earth using ANY FE model you wish.
3. Eclipses — Explain how both lunar and solar eclipses are possible on a flat earth.
4. Southern Hemisphere Flights — Qantas and LATAM both have flights that fly non-stop between Australia and Chile. The flights take between 14-15 hours. How is that possible on a flat earth?
5. Seasons — Explain how seasons are possible on a flat earth
6. Sigma Octanis — Explain how every person in the southern hemisphere can see this star, but not in the northern hemisphere.
7. Polaris — Explain how nobody in the southern hemisphere can see this star, ever.
8. Eratosthenes — Explain how he couldn’t have known the diameter of the globe 2,300 years ago.
9. Al-Biruni — Explain how he couldn’t measure the curve of the earth 1,000 years ago.
10. Coriolis — Explain how hurricanes, typhoons, and Foucault’s pendulum are affected by the Coriolis Effect
11. The Blue Marble — Explain how a 1972 photo of our globe is not genuine proof.
12. Satellites/ISS — How are satellites possible?

Hasty Generalization Fallacies

As a standard response to typical questions to the Flat Earth story, there are a list of hasty generalizations. Most of these are a quick way to deflect the question and to avoid answering the point. The biggest problem these fallacies present are an unsupported claim added to the debate and are used as a method of burden shifting which is another fallacy Flat Earth folks use.

1. Gravity doesn’t exist or is not a force.
2. All NASA photos are CGI.
3. NASA lies and cannot be trusted.
4. Space doesn’t exist.
5. High pressure requires a container.
6. The earth’s curve is 1.22*sq rt (height of viewer), so anything seen after that is impossible.
7. Refraction isn’t real.
8. Appeal to ignorance fallacy.

Challenge

The challenge is to explain one or all of these 12 points. The rules are if you choose to use a hasty generalization, you are then required to prove both the point AND the generalization you used. I am available on Twitter @IEAffiliate if you wish to discuss.

Predictions of the Great Dr Fauci

Everybody knows the well-educated and experienced expert in all things virus. Dr Anthony Stephen Fauci has served as the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and the running expert for the media, President, and every concerned citizen of the world. He certainly knows his stuff. He has been doing this since 1983 and he has been cited by several medical journals and received the Presidential Medal of Freedom by George W. Bush. So, after all those highly respected credentials should we be skeptical of his plentiful and scary predictions regarding Covid-19?

It seems he likes to be in the limelight and likes to have his voice heard all over this plant. He likes to be taken at his word and he is certainly not shy in making bold predictions about a virus nobody knew about or has any concept of how it will affect everybody and our economy. When world leaders listen to him and head his every word, then it seems that he should be correct a bit more than he has.

As of this writing on 2 Dec 2020, the US has seen about 14.27M cases and about 280,000 deaths with at least a limited link to the person having been exposed to the virus. Keep these numbers in mind as Dr Fauci likes to predict the future based on some models that have seen better days.

January 14, 2020: Fauci agreed with the WHO when they tweeted that “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of [Covid-19]“

January 21, 2020: Fauci said “This Is Not a Major Threat for People in the United States… Not Something Citizens – Should Be Worried About”. Wow!

Feb 28, 2020: Fauci told us via the New England Journal of Medicine that “Covid-19 death rates … may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza”. He might have been a bit off.

Feb 29, 2020: Fauci wanted to let everybody know that this virus only works outdoors and that “Malls, Movie Theaters, Gyms” are fine.

March 9, 2020 Dr Fauci told everybody that if you’re healthy, you can go on a cruise ship. A week before telling everybody how many he expects will die from this virus.

Early March 2020: Dr Fauci told everybody that they do not need to wear masks. As you will see, his opinion has changed. Several times.

March 16, 2020: Fauci, using one of the most widely accepted models told us that 2.2 million Americans will die if Covid goes unchecked. He really likes models.

March 20, 2020: Dr Fauci jumped in after Trump stated that the hydroxychloroquine treatment was not very effective and that “You got to be careful when you say ‘fairly effective.’ It was never done in a clinical trial… It was given to individuals and felt that maybe it worked.” Two weeks later, a very large doctor poll found that the hydroxychloroquine treatment was the “most effective therapy.”

March 29, 2020: Weeks after touting such great models and predictions, Dr Fauci changed from over 2 million American deaths, to 100,000 – 200,000 deaths. He then followed up with the statement “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.” No kidding!

April 9, 2020: Once he said 2 million, then somewhere between 100-200 thousand, our great predictor has updated us with a new number. 60,000 deaths.

April 12, 2020: Dr Fauci said Trump should have shut down the country back in February. If you forgot what he was saying in February, you can go back and take a look. At the time, the US had 100 cases. Yes 100. Excellent way to move those goalposts. Then he told us we can open the country back up in May. How long did that last?

April 16, 2020: Dr Fauci and Dr Deborah Birx admitted to telling Trump in the end of March to shut down the American economy in order to save those predicted 2M Americans. Asked if he would do it again 2 weeks later, he said yes.

May 12, 2020: Dr Fauci said it would be a bad idea to open schools.

August 4, 2020: Dr Fauci gives us a few reasons for opening schools.

October 6, 2020: The new number of deaths is between 300-400 thousand.

November 23, 2020: Now he changes it to over 400,000 deaths by the end of the year.

When asked about his giving predictions and advice, his response was “Fauci said “I have never made myself out to be the end all, and only voice in this. I’m a scientist, a physician, and a public health official. I give advice according to the best scientific evidence.” Really? Scientific evidence?

The United States need experts to tell us what we need to know. When going to these so-called “experts”, its best to research how well they have ben at predictions in the past. Seeing how ring he was covering the AIDS pandemic, MERS, N1H1, and a host of other things you would assume he would be an expert in, he has been horribly wrong. As we have seen with Covid, we just add this to his ever growing list of reasons why need better experts and not rely on this who just want to hear their own voice and like the feeling of being wanted by the media.

Concerns Regarding a President Biden Foreign Policy

To summarize my feelings regarding Joe Biden’s ability to handle foreign policy affairs can be reduced to former Obama SecDef Robert Gates estimation of his former peer. “[Joe Biden has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”

After seeing the Trump administration provide the US with a great number of successes and agreements in the world, along with some huge peace deals in the Middle East, it seems that a President Biden can do more damage than help in that arena.

China

China has been using its strong-arm tactics of forcing our companies that do business in China to have Chinese board members that belong to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to gain proprietary intellectual property (IP) from our biggest companies doing business in that country. This allows the Chinese to gain valuable information and access our some of our most important technological secrets and it lets them create alternate versions of our goods costing us a collective $200-600Billion annually.

President Trump stood up to the CCP and Chinese President Xi Jinping by hitting them with a high number of tariffs and other trade barriers costing China $100’s of billions in trade and a huge hit their their economy. Once China agreed to reducing tariffs to coincide with a stopping of IP theft and other damaging practices to our companies, the relationship between China and the US has improved, but is still in a controlled manner preventing China from taking advantage of the US and its companies with offices in China.

Biden’s constant speeches regarding China as not being an adversary, not being a competitor, and not even a strategic threat to the US. China is also showing up as a military threat as they start showing their new navy, they start stretching their borders with India, Japan, and continue to threaten Taiwan. Will Biden ever see them as the growing threat that our intel agencies are noticing?

It seems Joe Biden will allow China to continue its human rights violations with the Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities as well as turn a blind eye to all the threats to surrounding countries they are eyeing today.

Israel

Israel has been one of our closest allies since the middle of the 20th century. During the the last several Presidential administrations have made promises to Israel, but have fallen short when it comes to implement them. As we send them quite a hefty sum annually for their security, but the money is well worth it as it provides us a strong democracy in the Middle East.

Donald Trump came through on the ages-old promise to recognize the capital of Israel as Jerusalem along with moving our embassy into the holy city. This caused a huge uproar, but ended up strengthening our bond with the Jewish state. Jarrod Kirshner also brokered a huge series of peace treaties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and confirmed the recognition and opening relations with Sudan. This also lines up other countries to join including possibly Saudi Arabia which would be unprecedented

What will Biden do? He agreed he would not move the embassy back to Tel Aviv, but he did not agree with moving it in the first place. But, under the Obama years, our relationship was strained at best. Will he continue Kirshner’s work? Will he try to side with Israel in regards to Palestine? There are many questions that need to be asked.

Iran

President Obama had a very skewed look at Iran when it comes to how they are viewed by the world and the US. He believes the Iranian leadership is more moderate than it seems based on their acts. They are still funding terrorism around the world, they are still threatening shipping in the gulf, they are still voicing a direct threat to the US and Israel. This is not to ignore the efforts to build a nuclear bomb and the missile systems to deliver it.

Obama thought he could get them to stop by agreeing to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by telling them they are limited in the production of enriched uranium and to stop building other components of a missile delivery system. The plan sounded great on paper if the Mullahs were as moderate as perceived. But, in reality, Iran violated most aspects of the deal and inspectors were barred from seeing if they were in compliance with the agreed upon terms.

President Trump ended the agreement and forced other nations to stop dealing with Iran. This slowed their development of a nuclear program, but Iran is still violating the terms, and the intent of the agreement to limit the country’s threat to the world around them.

A President Biden can reverse the efforts of the Trump administration, by re-imposing the JCPOA, turn a blind eye to the actions of the Iranian military, and not stop the flow of money from Tehran to all the various terror groups in the Middle East and the surrounding area. I wish I am very wrong here.

Europe

Trump has improved the options for the EU, by getting them to take their security seriously. As Russia and Iran build up their militaries, Germany had been holding back on military spending and the other EU countries had also not held up their end of the NATO funding agreement. This put all the weight of providing military protection of our allies squarely on our own shoulders. Trump called them out on it and forced them to increases their defense spending to the levels specified in the NATO treaty.

Working with Azerbaijan, and other central Asian countries, a very prosperous pipeline will open to the southern European countries and allow them to have an alternate flows of energy that doesn’t depend solely on Russia. This will also lower the price of oil and gas as there is another cheaper supplier. Not sure how Biden will affect this plan, but after a bunch of his historic blunders, I’m hoping he doesn’t negatively affect this pipeline.

Another issue that Trump had to handle Europe was the renegade state of Turkey. Turkey has been siding with our enemies lately and as an ally in the NATO treaty, they are still working to harm our allies in the region. Not only are they attacking our Iraqi allies of the north the Kurds, but they are trying to set up shop in Syria to make that region even more volatile. Then there’s the act of wanting to buy our best 5th generation fighter, the F-35, inline with buying the Russian S-400 missile defense system. Trump ended the purchase of the F-35. Hopefully Biden will support that decision.

Conclusion

President Joe Biden can do some real good for the world. Sadly, nobody has seen him do it, yet. He has seen first-hand how it works when a businessman does it. When a person who has done international deals and has been successful at it. Biden has a 47-year track record and as shown before, he has done very little to help our allies, those who are neutral, or even help keep our enemies from growing.

I can hope he does well. If he does well, America does well and the world becomes a better place. I know nobody can do it all, but if Biden listens to real experts and not just those who want to control him, he will have a better shot than ever before in his long history in government.

Trump’s Accomplishments, So Far…

How many times have you heard that Trump is ruining the country? Or that Trump has done nothing to help the average American and only helped his billionaire cronies? Well, let’s take a look back at his administration and see what kind of accomplishments he can take credit for.

Trump finalized deals with many countries including the EU, South Korea, Canada/Mexico, China, Vietnam, as well as ending disastrous deals such as TPP and the harmful Paris Accords.

Poverty levels have dropped to a 17-year low lifting millions of Americans into a better life. You would wonder which party says they care and which party actually helps the poor. Those helped the most are minorities as blacks and Hispanics have seen record low poverty under the Trump administration.

As of Feb 2020, 7 million jobs have been created and the average wage for the lowest 25% workers pay has increased higher and faster than the top workers of this country. Unemployment has reached a level not seen in many decades and for black, Hispanics, women, and the most vulnerable Americans, the unemployment rate has reached record lows.

Funding for HBCU’s has doubled, money for Indian reservation recovery has grown, money for national parks and the improved land management has grown to help stop the huge fires in CA, OR, and WA.

In 2018, the First Steps Act that Trump signed has reversed many decades of federal programs that have harmed minorities. It helps inmates return to society easier, addresses inequalities in sentencing that many organizations have claimed to harm blacks, expanded judicial discretion in the sentencing of nonviolent crimes. 90% of those who benefited from this law were black Americans.

In late 2019, new single-family home sales were up 31% from 2018. Home ownership reached record levels for minorities. Consumer confidence, business confidence and small business confidence all reach levels not seen in a few decades. The stock market has hit new record highs helping retirees and the middle class families that use the stock market to help with their income.

After several Presidential promises through the decades, Trump officially made Jerusalem the recognized capital of Israel and moved the embassy there. President Trump with the help of Jared Kushner formalized a peace treaty for Israel and UAE and Bahrain known as the Abraham Accord. They also facilitated an agreement with Serbia and Kosovo ending a 20-year conflict.

It seems that many promises were made in his election bid in 2016 that all have come true. Many things that were forecasted in 2016 either were better that promised, or were a huge positive when the forecast was negative. For example, there were several prominent economists that said the stock market will crash if Trump gets elected. Well, we saw how that turned out. There were those who said the Middle East will erupt in a huge war if he moves the embassy to Jerusalem. Again, we saw how that turned out.

Israel’s Right to Defend Themselves

In the past few weeks, it has been clear that Israel has been attacked and forced to defend themselves from Hamas.When Hamas fires rockets into Israel, they are not aimed at military or specific targets, but fired blindly so that they cause as much much fear and terror as possible. They can land anywhere and can kill anyone at any time.

Israel has chosen to strike back with major force and with an unrelenting ferocity.With the deaths of Israeli students, their government have chosen to do what it can to end these attacks. They are tired of being attacked and are now shooting back.

The biggest concern is that when Israel fights back, Hamas chooses to hide behind women and children and they try to draw fire so that the most civilians, women, and children are harmed or killed. They know that the western press will find this disheartening and blame Israel for it. So, Israel has done what it can to save as many innocent civilians from harm. They have tried the roof-knock process (firing an inert bomb on target, allowing innocent people to flee the building before a real bomb is dropped). This hasn’t worked very well, but it shows that Israel is willing to warn innocent people that a bomb is coming and at least give them the choice to flee or not.

Another question is the premise that Israel should only match firepower with like firepower. If Hamas fires a rocket, Israel can only fire a rocket in return. This is really being dishonest as you never return like power, but with enough power to make the attack stop. If it is just a rocket attack back and forth, it will never end. Only until one side runs out of munitions will it end.

A major point that needs to be brought up is that Israel is a modern democracy and Gaza is ruled by Hamas that has shown not to be either modern nor a democracy. Israel wants peace and Hamas wants Israel gone. This is the biggest reason Israel must always reserve the right to defend itself. Nowhere in the world is there a country that has as many targets on it as Israel. From inception, Israel has always been the attacked both politically and militarily.

If you want a clear understanding of the situation with Israel and the countries around it, ask yourself this question. If Israel were to forever lay down their arms, What would happen? If Hamas were to forever lay down their arms, what would happen? If Israel lays down their guns, they will cease to exist. If Hamas were to lay down their guns, there would be peace in the land until the next enemy of Israel shows up. It is that clear.

Dennis Prager explains it very easily and clearly:

http://bit.ly/Middle-EastProblem

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You will learn that many of the established parenting techniques just don’t work and you will see why. Do you want to be tough on the kid? Do you want the kids to take control? There are so-called “experts” that will tell you that the only way to teach a child is to… What if it doesn’t work? The Happy Child Guide will explain to you in plain English how to be the most effective parent and have a child that is both excited to be growing in a happy household and one to be proud of in public and at school.

Benefits of a Financial Plan

When plotting a course from any point in your life to retirement, there needs to be a plan. If you have no plan, how do you know if you are on track to reach whatever goals you wish to have? A plan lets you know if you are able to reach your goals, how close you are, and if you need to make any necessary changes, To create a plan, there are 3 major steps to include. Establish where you are today, what your goals are when you retire, and the path to get from today to retirement.

Step 1: Today

To create the plan, you need to have a starting point. You need to understand your current situation and what you have. Your current status includes, your assets such as cash, savings, investments, possessions, and anything of value that does not fall into the previous list. You can divide them into those categories as they will be identified as having a different benefit to your financial plan. Next, you need to list your liabilities or debts. These include all loans, credit cards, and anything in which you owe to somebody else. It can include money, services, or anything of value.

The plan should then identify your assets that can be used to off set your short term liabilities, such as credit cards and other short term loans. This will allow you to reduce those types of debt that usually carry a higher interest rate. By eliminating loans and debt with high interest rates, you allow yourself to keep those loans that may benefit you to keep. These are usually low interest, long term debts that can allow you to pay them off slowly and use the money you spend on other debts to be put into to short and intermediate term savings, as well as retirement investments.

Step 2: Retirement Goals

After you identify where you are today, you need to understand where you want to go. When you plan a trip across the country, you have a destination in mind. If you live in Los Angeles, and you want to go to New York, then you have set your goal. But, a part of that goal is to select a desired date. If you want to get to New York in 7 days, you will use a different means than if you want to get there in 1 day. Just like that trip, you will need different products to reach your goals. Another point to know is what kind of lifestyle do you want when you retire. Do you want to live the same lifestyle as you do now? Do you want to travel more? Relax more? Take up a new hobby? There are many things to consider when you make your retirement goals.

Some things to keep in mind when you create your list of goals, is to understand that inflation and taxation will affect the value of the money you need in the year you retire. $1million today will not buy what it will in 20-30 years from now. If you can live fine on $8,000 a month, you may need more than that to live in 30 years. Conversely, you will not have the debts and payments that you have today either. If you play your cards correctly, you may not have a mortgage, student loans, and kids to feed and clothe. So taking into account the future value of money and the understanding of what you will probably not be paying in expenses, you can come up with a number that you can live on and enjoy your retirement. Remember, as you go along, you will be revising your goals so you can get a better fit as you get close to actual retirement.

Step 3: Getting from Here to There

Now that you know where you are and where you are going, you need to plot out how you are going to get there. This is where the hard work comes in. This is where you get a professional to help you create this plan. First, you will need to calculate your disposable income (DI). This is the dollar amount you have left over from your paycheck and all other forms of income and subtract all your expenses. By knowing your DI, you can then take the steps necessary to eliminate your bad debt and increase your savings and investments.

Professionals have financial calculators that will show you how much you will need to save in order to have your goal reached. These calculations will take into consideration income, raises, inflation, investment return and goals. If you can afford the monthly amount it gives, then you are in good shape to start saving and planning what you will do in retirement. If you cannot afford the number, then you have some work to do to reduce your expenses and/or increase your income.

Expenses are required like utilities and taxes, are necessary like credit card payments and other things you need on a monthly basis to live comfortably, and there are expenses that are derived from wanting to enjoy things. The first you need to look at are those expenses that can be cut just by living a little lower than your income. A few less meals out, a few less trips to Las Vegas, a few less trips to the mall to buy the thing you can live without. As you revise your monthly budget, you will get a better idea of how realistic your goals are and if you need to push back retirement a few years or by lowering your lifestyle once in retirement.

As with that trip to New York, I mentioned, you cannot setup a plan and just go on auto-pilot. Maybe you want to visit the Grand Canyon, Texas, and Atlanta on the way. If you do, then you need to revise the plan. You need to do an annual analysis of the plan to see if you need to make adjustments. Maybe you got a raise, maybe you had a child, maybe you won the lottery. Change happens and by doing these reviews, you can make adjustments along the way and revise your goals if necessary. Who knows, your investments gave you a few good years, now you can move your retirement date up a year and increase your monthly income by $1000. Who know, but without a plan, you may never realize how close or far your retirement is.

Your financial professional will keep you updated on your plan and you will always be aware of if you will be retiring at 60 with a boat load of income, or having to wait until you are 73 and living with your kids. But, by waiting too long, you are just putting off that information until it is too late. The sooner you start saving, the better you will have in retirement and the sooner you realize how much you need to save, the better you will live between now and that date you set.

How Much Does It Cost to Hire a Pricing Manager?

By Michael Vargas

How many times do you think that question is asked in medium to large companies that specialize in wholesale and/or retail operations? Probably many times a year. Keep in mind that in this country the cost of hiring, training, paying, and supporting a mid level manager can be upwards to $100,000 to $200,000 per year depending on the level of support and requirements. Will he or she need to travel? Will he or she need to have advanced software? Will he or she need to attend pricing seminars? Will he or she need to belong to the best pricing organizations? These all have a way of raising the cost or having a good pricing manager on staff.

Keep in mind the costs of not having one. Prices are managed by Executives, marketing, purchasing, sales, finance, IT, etc. Who has a hand in determining what is best for the company and/or their department? Who is the final arbiter when the final price needs to be applied in a given situation? How do you know it is the best price? Executives want to raise the price to keep margins up. Sales want to increase sales by lowering the price. Finance wants margins up, while purchasing wants to raise volumes so they can get better discounts. Who can come in and be independent enough to make the decisions to benefit the company and not just individual departments?

But what is the benefit of having a good pricing manager? Pricing has many facets. By having a person that understands all those facets, or at least most of them, can be extremely valuable to any company. Imagine a company that has 40,000 sku’s. What if that company has 200 vendors? Who is going to manage that many items? Who will be able to spend the time necessary to make mass changes and analyze the volume of such a number?

Velocity Pricing

There are many ways a company can create a quick pricing scheme to change pricing to give the biggest impact with the least amount of worry. One of these is a policy called “velocity pricing”. Take the products that are the most elastic (least chance of losing business from a price increase) and raise the prices a moderate amount and you will see a small gain in margin.

On the face of this policy, it sounds great. Imagine plugging the bottom 30,000 items into a quick pricing model, take the results and immediately change the prices in the system. Just like that you spent 4 hours and got a quick return of 300% on your time investment. I can see many mangers jumping at that kind of operation. Do that 3 or 4 times a year and you can see a tidy return on not having the need to hire a pricing manager. But what about the downside? How do you know it is working as it is advertised? After 4 times, you are starting to see a 200% return, then a 150% return, then a 75% return, etc. What could be going wrong?

The problem is that you are investing time on the front end, but not on the back-end. Had you done the analysis, you would have seen you were incorrectly pricing similar items. This was causing confusion with the customers. You also noticed that the lowest of the products were priced so high that they would always stay in the category to be priced even higher. Since the system looked at volume, it would see that these products would warrant a price increase when the opposite was needed drastically.

Direct Benefits

The direct benefits of having a Pricing Manager are being to have those products that impact your business the most (80/20 rule) would be given the most attention. Those that do not impact your business could be managed on a larger scale. Take the example of velocity pricing (raise price based on volume). Imagine if you had a person that would modify the pricing model to add a modifier to lower the price if the volume was negatively impacted. Also add a modifier if the price exceeded certain market levels. Also, take the time to make the changes similar for items within certain categories. If a 3″ model goes up 2%, then so should the 4″, and 5″ models. This keeps them in order and you are not charging more for a 3″ model than a 5″model.

More benefits is being able to use standard pricing ideas. Regional pricing for certain regions in the country. Certain areas of the country place a different priority on price as opposed to service. Promotional pricing to see which products are best used during sales periods. Paired products to use to increase margins on products that are purchased along popular items. This allows the company to improve margins on items that would normally never see an increase. Tiered pricing based on the size and purchase volume of the customers. This could potentially be the best way to improve margins as well as give the sales staff a great tool to promote more business with many customers. Imagine telling a customer on the cusp of the next level that if he raises his volume another 2%, he could see a 5% discount? Although the margin would go slightly down, your overall profit would go up.

End of life pricing also known as clearance pricing. With many wholesalers and retailers, there are always a list of products that were a great idea at one time, but have since been relegated to the back of the warehouse. These products are costing you money in warehousing, inventory, and lost opportunity cost since you could be buying a better product to sell. Being able to price products that need to be sold quickly can be a big benefit. This is especially true when the number of items grows into a problem with warehouse space or inventory time.

One time pricing opportunities can be a time when you can raise prices when all your customers are expecting a price increase. Once or twice a year, your most popular products are going to see a price increase from your vendor. Since this would be seen across the industry, the customers that use the product the most would be prepared for that increase and adjust accordingly.

Putting a Price on the Benefits

Many times when a Finance Manager or a President is given the question, they want to know the bottom line. What can I expect to gain from a $200,000 investment? If you get a person with 5 or more years of experience, you can expect to see the opportunity to gain all or most of the things mentioned above. If you used tiered pricing the gain would be close to a 1-2% margin gain. Depending on how the margins are set, this could translate to a 1% gain to the bottom line profit. So, if a $200 million company implements this one tool, they can see a $2 million dollar gain in profit. That is a 900% return! Now add the other tools suggested. If all are implemented, that return would skyrocket.

So, if the company is not using any of these tools, or are using some of them without any back-end analysis, then the cost of not having a Pricing Manager is weighing the company down. There should be no reason that a mid to upper level company would not have a dedicated person that managed the pricing. Having a well-trained, experienced person would be invaluable and would make your sales staff, customers, and executives much happier.

Author:

Michael Vargas is an experienced Pricing Manager with 11 years of pricing support and 5 years of direct pricing experience. He has worked in various industries, roles, and has contracted his expertise to add over $1 million to the bottom line at a medical devices company. He has been seen many different styles of pricing and has both updated current pricing schemes and created new pricing from scratch.  By using his analytical style at improving margins, profits, and sales, he has shown that the right Pricing Manager is all in the person you choose and the flexibility of accepting new and outside-of-the-box ideas.

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